Going through the motions

It's the end of January and us Maple Leafs fans have no choice but to feel the doomed feeling associated with falling from playoff contention. A bit earlier than usual I know. As hockey fans, we all know that the league takes a few months to shake down and work out the kinks. Upsets are a little less common, and top-tier teams are less likely to drop a game to low seeded clubs at this point in the 82 game sched. The playoff hunt in both conferences is still very tight, but bottom-feeder teams are being weeded out of the hunt more and more every day.

It's hard to admit, but the Leafs are the lowest of low in the league right now with the most losses (combining regulation AND overtime). The Blue & White are currently only 5 points above the Canes, with three more games played at this point. The lowest point total right now is courtesy of Edmonton with only 38 points, but again, Toronto has three more games played. The Leafs have a record of 17-27-10, that's twenty more losses than wins. At the current pace the Leafs are set to achieve an embarrassing record and the slide looks to have zero intention of relenting.

When the Buds hosted the surging and promising LA Kings last night, it seemed like both teams were dancing to a familiar tune and the Leafs just accepted the loss as they were supposed to. The game wasn't overly terrible, it wasn't a blow-out, but the truculence and 'we're not going to take it' attitude that the Buds are supposed to display night in and night out were non-existent. It seems as though the point in the season has come (and quite early) where the team will simply go through the motions for the remainder of the season and most news regarding the Leafs will have zero to do with anything on ice. Most discussion regarding our precious team will likely involve the trade deadline, free agency, and dare I say it: next season.

The disappointment surrounding the early season debacle that has been the Toronto Maple Leafs is overwhelming for a life-time fan like myself. It's something that we've all become accustomed to in the past few years but that doesn't make it any easier.

GM Brian Burke has a busy few weeks ahead, and it will be very interesting to watch what happens. It's no news to anyone that Burke has stated his plan to take on salary from other teams in order to acquire draft picks and/or prospects. It's a very real possibility that a player like Peter Mueller could cross Burke's radar, so it doesn't have to strictly be draft picks that are coming to Toronto.

Darren Dreger has listed Poni and Stajan in his top ten players to be dealt before the deadline. Makes sense, but what sort of return are we all expecting? Personally I'd expect a decent prospect for each and a possible mid-round pick. Nik Hagman has been seen as a great asset, which indeed he is, but I wouldn't just deal this guy for the sake of doing it. At a great price, good term, and great production this year I expect Burkie would definitely would have to be blown away in order to deal the Finn.

I'm still interested in what Burke will do with restricted free agents White and Mitchell. As I've written before, I expect White's future is directly related to what happens with Kaberle. With Mitchell it's a little different. To me he seems very inconsistent so I can see how Burke would face the "to deal him or not to deal him" dilemma. My guess is if Mitchell stays, he could see Marlies time next year and maybe that's not something he wants to deal with. Either way, it should be an interesting few weeks coming up to say the least.

Despite the Leafs season, it's a great time to be a hockey fan with the Olympics only weeks away and all the trade talk around the league. It's going to be fun to see how it all shakes out.

-maplestirup
razzler67@gmail.com

Leafs in OT: Bad luck or no skill at all?

With only 9.8 seconds remaining in overtime last night, a Marty St. Louis' howitzer put the Leafs record in the extra frames at 1-10. When the game actually ends in OT, the blue & white have failed to even muster up one victory all season, falling to 0-8.

Ian White says it's ridiculous, he's right. Ron Wilson says the team needs to be more discipline, he's right. The overtime winner last night came on a Bolts powerplay, courtesy of too many men on the ice. However, 1-10 surely couldn't be blamed solely on discipline. Maybe it was the rotten ice conditions in Tampa last night? What were the Leafs eating for a pre-game meal? Anyone care to take a guess why this almost unspeakable record is actually, against all proper logic, becoming worse?

It's evident that the overtime period is a reflection of team skill. And quite frankly, outside of 81, the Buddies fail to show any elite scoring potential. Tell us something we don't know right?

To say that Leafs fans wish to cheer for something meaningful in the post-season is an understatement. But to qualify for the playoffs is one thing, and compete for the Stanley Cup is something else. Just ask Calgary Flames fans, they've seen their team lose every year in the post-season for the past five years. Canucks fans are equally as frustrated as they've seen their Stanley Cup hopes fly out the window, usually within two rounds. Mind you, these teams could mount some sort of miracle once they're in the post-season tournament in the spring. But to pick mid-season Stanley Cup favorites this year usually yields names like Chicago, Washington and San Jose. Of course your top three picks might be different, but I'll use these for now.

Brian Burke's goal is to win a Stanley Cup. He wants a contender. He wants a team that's at the top of the heap. So to look at these three elite clubs I've listed, they all hold a common bond. Which is superstar scoring spread somewhere throughout the roster. What does this have to do with the Leafs overtime susceptibility? Well..

It's overtime, four-on-four, and we'll say (hypothetically) that the Leafs decide to go with Tyler Bozak and Kessel, along with Beauch and Kaberle on the back end. Not to shabby eh? Then the second string could look a bit like Poni and Stajan, with White and perhaps Luke Schenn.

Okay, so that's taken care of for now.

Now, let's look at the Blackhawks. You might say “Why the Blackhawks? That's setting the bar a bit too high.” Which is a sound point. But when Toronto is the hockey mecca, how can the bar be set too high? When you see a trillion people walking around with Leafs jerseys on (I own two, myself), and tickets at the ACC going for completely outlandish prices, why would Stanley Cup contention seem too much to ask? It takes time, so we can all leave that alone for a while.

So the Blackhawks need to come up with four players to match our mighty tandem. They could come out with Kane and Toews, with Keith and Seabrook. In case you didn't notice, that's four Olympians. Keep in mind, they still have Hossa, Sharp, Campbell, and Barker waiting on the bench. See where I'm coming from?

These teams can mix and match all kinds of skill. Boyle, Heatley, Marleau and Thornton anyone? Green, Ovie, Semin and Backstrom? Nothing but pure elite talent. Upon looking at these clubs and what they can throw on the ice in the extra frame shows precisely why the Leafs record is so dismal in the extra period and shootout. It's really not that mind-boggling, and it definitely has nothing to do with luck.

The Maple Leafs are in action against the Panthers tomorrow night before returning home for the Los Angeles Kings on Tuesday. Let's all hope that overtime doesn't show its ugly mug.

Changes imminent, but unpredictable

Despite the bogus rumors of Ilya Kovalchuk suiting up in Blue & White, I'm sure everyone in Leafs Nation is anticipating some changes coming in the next few months and off-season. The torch is almost entirely passed along to Burkie, and acquisitions made by JFJ and Cliff Fletcher will be weeded out soon enough. Expect to see Stempniak, Stajan, Poni, and Mitchell among others to be speculated trade bait in March. Even then, whoever isn't dealt at the trade deadline will be a complete toss up for re-signing in the off-season. Where does Burke stand on Ponikarovsky right now? I really want to know if he's going to hold on to him or let him go for a possible draft pick, if not walking in the summer. GM's do this kind of thing. Why in hell did Bob Gainey let Mark Streit, Sheldon Souray, and Mike Komisarek walk away to other teams for nothing in return? We don't know. Which is why we're sitting here at the computer and these guys run real NHL franchises. Sometimes I look at a move by a GM and I have to say "Yeah I don't get that one. Must have had something to do with something fans know nothing about on the managerial side".

Sometimes I don't want him to deal Ponikarovsky. This season, when he scores goals like the one against Montreal, when the Habs fans were echoing down songs of "Goodbye" and he tied it to force overtime. Well, that was insane and made me say "Yeah Burke should keep this guy and throw him on the third line when we get better players". This is a common Leaf fans dilemma. I guess it applies to other teams but come on, this is the Leafs and we're all too familiar with dilemma's by now, since we're a widely known post-lockout disaster.

Either way, it's time for Burke to figure out to do with these guys and get it done. I'd hate to see Matt Stajan or Ponikarovsky go to unrestricted free agency and Burke let them go, when they had about 60 points each and a draft pick written all over them. I know he'll wait until the trade deadline to pull the deal on these guys, if he indeed intends to do that. But, the suspense is killing me and this season is all but over. So let's reset again and figure out what's going to happen this time the Buds fail to qualify for the post-season (outside a sheer miracle).

Losing team or not, I've still grown an attachment to all Leaf players so anyone who gets dealt I'll miss. I've watched Stajan, Stempniak, and Ponikarovsky score some pretty great goals for the Blue & White, so obviously every Leaf fan has some attachment to these players if they're true fans. But I'm a realist and I'm aware that anything coming back that will benefit this hockey club is worth it. It's the hurdle that a lot of fans have to hop when moves are made by the GM, and that's perfectly alright.

The Kaberle situation is so beat to death now that I won't even get into it. I've pretty much accepted that this will be sorted out in the summer when there's that 6 week window to deal him if the Maple Leafs are eliminated from playoff contention. If not, and Burke actually decides, against all speculation, against all odds, to hold on to #15, well... we've got a log jam.

Komisarek, Kaberle, Beauchemin, Schenn, White... in case you didn't count, that's 5 players... that's 5 top-four defensemen. Luke Schenn left out of the top 4? Give me a break. Beauchemin? This guy eats up 25 minutes a game. Mike Komisarek has seen his ice time come to just under 20 minutes, but #5 defensemen? Not in a million years after signing for top dollars this past summer. And the bottom line is, if Kaberle doesn't go, then it looks like it has to be Ian White. Sucks, eh? A player who's grown on us big time and scores clutch goals, who has shown so much improvement. A player we've watched enter the league and turn out to be a real Leaf draft pick turned great NHL player, after paying dues in the AHL. So who do you want? Remember, White can stay, but that means we're going to see Tomas Kaberle in another jersey within the next year. So you can see how possible a Kaberle trade has to be, despite Burke's put-down of the notion only a week ago.

Oh look, I've stumbled into the Kaberle situation. Guess my brain is all scrambled thinking about the game tonight. Leafs/Bolts on national broadcast followed by Flames/Hawks. Break out the popcorn tonight! Oh yeah, and Caps/Pens! Perfect time to stay in from the snowstorm and not shovel. I'll wait until tomorrow morning when it's hard as a rock and I break four plastic shovels.